India Inc could be embarking upon a new phase of capital expenditure (capex) cycle, observed analysts, and suggest its revival would lead to a rerating of industrial stocks. Assisted by a property upcycle, analysts at Jefferies said several government initiatives were likely to drive capex. Indicators, they said, include a private project announcement at Rs 25 trillion for 2022-23 (up 150 per cent from pre-pandemic levels) and credit growth at about 16 per cent, which is closer to pre-pandemic highs.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
After bumbling for years since 2014, the Modi government seems to believe that massive government expenditure will lead us to prosperity supported by 'seat-of-the-pants' decision-making, observes Debashis Basu.
Unseasonal rains watered down the performance of consumer durables companies as temperatures cooled, impacting the sales of refrigerators and air conditioners (ACs) in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter. Centrum says in its report on the sector that the trade channel indicates a 25-30 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in sales of refrigerators and ACs in April and May due to restricted buying. "While some green shoots in demand were visible in June, overall growth for the quarter is likely to remain at a negative 10-12 per cent," observes the brokerage.
The spike in food prices at the onset of the monsoon season has corroborated the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the State of the Economy report of the central bank said. At the same time, the report said that the country is poised to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, notwithstanding some sequential moderation in economic activity in June. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate increased to 4.8 per cent in June 2023, from 4.3 per cent in May, primarily on account of an increase in food inflation.
While the two-phased assembly polls voting has concluded in Assam, in West Bengal two phases have completed while four more remain.
The CAG has pulled up the union government for adopting an erroneous process of devolution of IGST to states and short-transfer of cesses to reserve funds, which resulted in under-reporting of deficit figures for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 fiscals. The Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST), which is levied on inter-state sale of goods and services, is shared between the Centre and states in the 50:50 ratio. In its report on the union government accounts tabled in Parliament, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) found that a sum of Rs 13,944 crore was left unapportioned and retained in the Consolidated Fund of India (CFI) in 2018-19, even though the amended IGST Act now provides for a process for ad-hoc apportionment of IGST.
The SBI said its officials were ferrying Rs 570 crore after the Reserve Bank of India asked them to, to address a temporary cash shortage in Andhra Pradesh.
Banks asked to maintain record of cash being ferried in these vehicles all the time
Counting of votes in all elections will be held on May 2.
She has shown shrewdness, sensitivity, and courage. All of these will be needed in ample quantities for the real challenge that will emerge after the elections, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
Many CEOs said they plan to give special leave to women employees so as to encourage their participation in the workforce.
The candidates contesting the upcoming Lok Sabha polls will now be able to spend Rs 40 lakh, an increase of Rs 15 lakh from the last poll expenditure limit.
Rajasthan is all set to vote on Saturday to elect members of a new assembly with the Bharatiya Janata Party aiming to unseat the ruling Congress, which is fighting hard to change the trend of alternate governments in the state.
Reminiscent of the past two years, the market has made positive strides ahead of the Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24). The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 1.8 per cent in the last month. Typically, markets tend to gain ahead of the Budget as investors build in optimism.
More boys than girls with cancer in India are being diagnosed with the disease and the probable cause for this is gender bias in society, according to a study published in The Lancet Oncology.
A direct contest between nominees of the BJP-led NDA and Congress-headed Grand Alliance is on the cards in 20 constituencies
Counting of votes would be take place on March 3
The apex court, which dismissed the pleas filed by the West Bengal government and the State Election Commission (SEC) challenging the high court order, said the tenor of the high court order was ultimately to ensure free and fair election in the state.
'Geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices, if any, are another concern for global markets, particularly for India.'
As many as 386 infrastructure projects, each entailing an investment of Rs 150 crore or more, have been hit by cost overruns of more than Rs 4.7 lakh crore, as per a report. According to the ministry of statistics and programme implementation, which monitors infrastructure projects of Rs 150 crore and above, out of 1,505 projects, 386 reported cost overruns and as many as 661 projects were delayed. "Total original cost of implementation of the 1505 projects was Rs 21,21,793.23 crore and their anticipated completion cost is likely to be Rs 25,92,537.79 crore, which reflects overall cost overruns of Rs 4,70,744.56 crore (22.19% of original cost)," the ministry's latest report for July 2022 said.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Monday that fair and impartial auditing is essential for a resilient economy as it instils confidence among citizens. Addressing officers at the National Academy of Audit and Accounts, Das said that audit is important for the country as public expenditure decisions are based on these reports. Observing that there is a need to improve the quality and depth of audit, he said the Reserve Bank has taken a host of steps in consultation with the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) for improving the audit of banks and financial institutions.
'Although mid- and small-cap funds have the potential for higher growth, they come with inherent higher volatility.'
Weeks after it revised the rating outlook of two companies of embattled Adani group, S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said it is watching for additional information on the conglomerate's governance and funding for any ratings action. Investors, it said, seek clarity on the credit impact of a string of allegations against the group in a short-seller report published in late January, and on the findings of a recently launched Supreme Court investigation. S&P Global published an FAQ-style commentary titled, "Adani Group: The Known Unknowns".
Capital markets regulator Sebi has kept the proposed Rs 4,500-crore initial share-sale of edible oil major Adani Wilmar Ltd (AWL) in "abeyance". However, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) did not clarify further. The company had filed preliminary papers with Sebi on August 3, to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO).
'Indian equity valuations, although not very expensive, are not cheap either.'
In a first such action in India's electoral history, the Election Commission had Wednesday ordered campaigning in the nine West Bengal constituencies to end at 10 pm on Thursday, instead of 6 pm on Friday, in the wake of violence between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress in Kolkata during Amit Shah's roadshow.
After clocking losses for seven straight quarters, Tata Motors on Wednesday posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,043 crore in the third quarter (Q3) of 2022-23. This came on the back of a strong order book, better semiconductor chip supply, tempered commodity prices, and a better product mix. "We remain cautiously optimistic about the demand situation, notwithstanding the global uncertainty.
"I am personally averse to sealed covers. There has to be transparency in court... This is about implementing orders. What can be secret here," the CJI said.
When we look at the pension expenditure of the states, so far, there has been no gain from the NPS reform. Pension expenses as a share of total state revenue expenditure rose from 4% in 1991-1992 to 10% at the time of the NPS reform, and have risen further to about 12%, observes Ajay Shah.
The S&P BSE Auto Index has been one of the biggest outperformers among sectoral indices over the past year with returns of 26 per cent. By comparison, the benchmarks - the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 and the S&P BSE Sensex - managed about 6-8 per cent during this period. Improving demand, falling raw material costs, and rising product realisations, led by the premiumisation of portfolios, have led to a revision of growth estimates and upgrades by domestic brokerages.
There are several welcome standalone reforms, but these do not add up to a coherent strategy to achieve a $5 trillion economy or secure Aatmanirbharta, observes Rathin Roy.
As the FM said, this is a Budget that lays the foundation for the next 25 years, observes Kumar Mangalam Birla.
'There will be positive growth, but if you ask me whether we are going to have the original growth rate of 8%, the answer will be, no.'
'When the average growth in the last three years was just 2.5%, how does that make us the fastest growing country?' 'They only tell you what has happened in the last 2 years; they are not taking into account what happened in FY21 on account of their mistakes.'
Extreme poverty in India declined by 12.3 percentage points between 2011 and 2019, with rural areas doing better than urban centres, according to a working paper of the World Bank. India has not released a new household consumption survey since the NSS from 2011. By extension, the country has not released any official estimates of poverty and inequality for over a decade now, added the paper co-authored by economists Sutirtha Sinha Roy and Roy van der Weide.
The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved a Rs 76,000 crore policy boost for semiconductor and display manufacturing ecosystem in the country in an bid to position India as a global hub for hi-tech production. Announcing the decision of the Cabinet, IT and Telecom Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw observed that electronics plays an important role in everyday life, and semiconductor chips forms a crucial part of electronics. Outlining the details of the scheme, he said the Rs 76,000 crore programme has been approved for the development of semiconductors and display manufacturing ecosystem.
The model code of conduct comes into immediate effect, he said.
